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To better understand what level of mask-wearing we need in the population to get this pandemic under control, we assembled a transdisciplinary team of 19 experts and looked at a range of mathematical models and other research to learn what would happen if most people wore a mask in public.
Every infectious disease has a reproduction rate, called R. The pandemic flu had an R of 1. A disease dies out if its R falls under 1.
The lower the number, the faster it dies out. The blue area of the graph below indicates an R 0 below 1. Models show that if 80 percent of people wear masks that are 60 percent effective, easily achievable with cloth, we can get to an effective R 0 of less than one. Many countries already have more than 80 percent of their population wearing masks in public, including Hong Kong, where most stores deny entry to unmasked customers, Sick To Find the more than 30 countries that legally require masks in public spaces, such as Israel, Singapore, and the Czech Republic.
Mask use in combination with physical distancing is even more powerful. While cloth masks are sufficient for protecting others, people who are immunocompromised or those who have a few left over from fire season or hobbies may be considering wearing N95s, to better protect themselves. Usually, laws, regulations, mandates, or strong cultural norms ensure maximal participation.
And once that happens, the result can be amazing. Read: Face masks are in. For example, in Sick To Find Kong, only four confirmed deaths due to COVID have been recorded since the beginning of the pandemic, despite high density, mass transportation, and proximity to Wuhan.
Similarly, Taiwan ramped up mask production early on and distributed masks to the population, mandating their use in public transit and recommending their use in other public places—a recommendation that has been widely complied with. The country continues to function fully, and their schools have been open since the end of February, while their death total remains very low, at only six. In the Czech Republic, masks were not used during the initial outbreak, but after a grassroots campaign led to a government mandate on March 18, masks in public became ubiquitous.
The results took a while to be reflected in the official statistics : The first five days of April still saw an average of new cases and nine deaths per day, but the most recent five days of data show an average of new cases and five deaths per day.
We know a vaccine may take years, and in the meantime, we will need to find ways to make our societies function as safely as possible. Our governments can and should do much—make tests widely available, fund research, ensure medical workers have everything they need, Sick To Find. But ordinary people are not helpless; in fact, we have more power than we realize.
Along with keeping our distance whenever possible and maintaining good hygiene, all of us wearing just a cloth mask could help stop this pandemic in its tracks. We want to hear what you think about this article.
Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters theatlantic. Skip Sick To Find content. Sign in My Account Subscribe. The Atlantic Crossword. The Print Edition. Latest Issue Past Issues. Read: What you need to know about the coronavirus To better understand what level of mask-wearing we need in the population to get this pandemic under control, we assembled a transdisciplinary team of 19 experts and looked at a range of mathematical models and other research to learn what would happen if most people wore a mask in public.
Read: Face masks are in For example, in Hong Kong, only four confirmed deaths due to COVID have been recorded since the beginning of the pandemic, despite high density, mass transportation, and proximity to Wuhan. Plug connectors and cables. Mounting systems. Reflectors and optics. Our Accessories Monitoring and controlling.
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